{"id":7998,"date":"2023-12-19T16:34:24","date_gmt":"2023-12-19T21:34:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/?p=7998"},"modified":"2023-12-19T19:59:17","modified_gmt":"2023-12-20T00:59:17","slug":"smart-rabbits-american-small-businesspeople-trade-wars-and-the-future-of-u-s-china-relations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/2023\/china-currents\/22-2\/smart-rabbits-american-small-businesspeople-trade-wars-and-the-future-of-u-s-china-relations\/","title":{"rendered":"Smart Rabbits: American Small Businesspeople, Trade Wars, and the Future of U.S.- China Relations"},"content":{"rendered":"

There is a Chinese proverb about a smart rabbit, \u72e1\u5154\u4e09\u7a9f,ji\u01ceo t\u00f9 s\u0101n k\u016b in Mandarin. A smart rabbit has three burrows. If one is endangered or destroyed, the rabbit can seek safety in the other two. The story was shared by Jim Wu, an entrepreneur who has created many businesses since leaving China for Texas many years ago. His businesses have created jobs for fellow Americans.<\/p>\n

Wu worries about the future of the bilateral relationship, and about his status as a Chinese American at a time when it may not be safe to be one. He hopes for the best but prepares for the worst. He has a plan. In fact, he has three plans \u2013 A, B, and C \u2013 just in case. These plans consist of staying in the United States, creating different businesses that don\u2019t involve China, or moving his family to a third country that is more open to trade and is friendlier to Chinese Americans.<\/p>\n

The rabbit metaphor suggests adaptability, flexibility, persistence, and pragmatism \u2013 characteristics that Wu and thousands of Americans display in their dealings in and with China. These smaller businesses may not form the backbone of the commercial relationship, 51 years after President Nixon\u2019s dramatic visit. But they arguably comprise key vertebrae that now support several million jobs in the United States and helped maintain a half-century of now-tenuous peace between nuclear-armed superpowers.<\/p>\n

Our Smart Rabbits are not emotionally neutral about current tensions between the United States and China, which include a trade war, bellicose rhetoric, accusations about the origin of the COVID pandemic, alleged slave labor in Xinjiang, many pieces of U.S. legislation seeking to restrain and punish China, \u201cblacklists\u201d of sanctioned people and companies, growing nationalism in China, spy balloons, China\u2019s relations with Russia, moves to force the popular TikTok social media channel to sell to American buyers or shut down in the United States, even threats of war over Taiwan.<\/p>\n

These businesspeople overwhelmingly oppose decoupling, or significantly reducing trade between the world\u2019s largest economies. Their solution is to increase trade and people-to-people exchanges with due respect to matters of national security. They want to keep working the trade channels and people-to-people connections while governments work harder on other problems bedeviling the relationship \u2013 and there are plenty of them.<\/p>\n

These business owners speak of a middle way that deliberately avoids extreme positions: loving China whatever it does, or treating it like an existential adversary, closing national borders and minds to keep goods and people out. Rather, they engage with Chinese customers and suppliers as Americans who follow America\u2019s laws and support American values. They earnestly believe that their engagement with Chinese counterparts improves worker rights and human rights generally by the way they treat their own employees and, if they have them, their Chinese employees. They rightly bristle when referred to as na\u00efve or unpatriotic.<\/p>\n

These businesses see two parallel realities. One is that China is uniformly bad and needs to be opposed and separated from. The other is that China is an important trading partner, generator of American jobs, profit center, muse of global competitiveness for American corporations, and indispensable partner for dealing with existential threats facing the world. Today, the dominant narrative is that China is a menace and an implacable adversary. The businesses see this perspective as detrimental to their companies and their desire to see better bilateral relations, or less bad than they are today.<\/p>\n

\u201cBad China\u201d was the target of former President Trump\u2019s tariffs cum trade war and President Biden\u2019s continuation of them despite substantial evidence they do not work as promoted. President Biden admitted as much during the election that put him in the White House. But as of this writing, the tariffs are still on despite reports that they have cost U.S. businesses and consumers $125 billion and counting over three years and increasing by $3 billion each month. Smaller businesses have suffered from the added tariffs more than larger corporations, which have much deeper pockets and myriad ways of making money.<\/p>\n

A U.S.-China Middle Way for Smart Rabbits and Their Elected Representatives<\/b><\/p>\n

The businesspeople who contributed personal reflections for this article share six common perspectives on the need to find a middle ground between the opposites <\/b>of \u201cBad China\u201d and \u201cGood China.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

First is the belief that trade with China is important and that a headlong rush to decouple will damage the economies of both countries and the world.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Robert Fisch, a business consultant with offices in Florida and Shanghai, said: \u201cA major rupture between these two great powers would be very destabilizing for the world. One of the major concerns is not COVID-19 or trade policy, but rather the war of words, which does not help either side.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fisch added: \u201cLook, I\u2019ve lived there for decades. I feel part Chinese. I don\u2019t want bad things to happen.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

George Wang owns a contract manufacturing business based in Oregon and is a native of China. He said: \u201cThe U.S. is worried about China\u2019s influence around the world, which in time could change how the influence game is played. I don\u2019t want to see confrontation take place in my lifetime. Mutual understanding should be sought through increased collaboration and communication.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Inna Prikhodko, who owns a South Carolina business that helps Chinese hospitals source pharmaceuticals from the United States, said: \u201cI think about this problem all the time. Every year I am still open for business, I am grateful. If President Biden decides not to trade with China, we\u2019ll have to find something else to do.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Second is the belief that trade can and must be conducted even amid disagreements about other issues, such as human rights or who has the better political and economic system. A \u201cmiddle way\u201d is needed that avoids being reflexively for or against the people and leaders of the other country. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kimberly Kirkendall, who operates a consultancy in Ohio with clients in China, said: \u201cThe labels are extreme. Either you are a pro-China mouthpiece of the Communist Party, or you hate China. The truth is usually in the middle, but it is getting harder to walk the middle. I try.\u201d<\/p>\n

Part of trying involves speaking to college students, Kirkendall said. \u201cI want people to think critically. I tell students that the policy of the U.S. government has been to contain China. I ask students to flip that. If China or Russia were saying their goal is to contain the U.S., how would you feel? It\u2019s important to understand the other side of any argument. Challenging our own perspective is largely missing from official discourse, and I\u2019m constantly amazed by the fuzzy thinking I confront.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Other contributors, including David Mathison, owner of a furniture cover manufacturer in North Carolina, agree about the fuzzy thinking. He said: \u201cThere is no way [the U.S. government] could make a case that making leather in China using U.S. materials undercuts the industry in the United States. There is no leather-making industry in the United States. We sell upper-end products, and we can only do that by working in China.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Third is a belief that business is a force for good because it strengthens individual relations, improves mutual understanding, and creates broad economic benefits by transacting with others.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Chinese American business owner Jeff Ji of Philadelphia with clients in China said: \u201cYou have to have the fixer, the matchmaker, the cultural translator. Keep trying to build strong relationships. Many of our politicians have never had to make a payroll. They don\u2019t get it. Americans and Chinese have built many useful relationships. It will be a disaster for all of us if they are systematically broken.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Fourth is frustration with governments who are overly antagonistic toward each other and largely dismissive or ignorant of the economic and informal diplomatic roles played by smaller companies and their support systems.<\/p>\n

Longtime China entrepreneur Mitch Thompson of California is one of the few Americans we talked to who is planning to give up on China after years of working there, learning the language, and marrying a Chinese woman. He said: \u201cIn China, the role of the foreigner is not useful anymore. It\u2019s shocking how closed China is right now. It\u2019s much more than COVID. COVID is an excuse.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mathison, the furniture covering manufacturer, is one of the few small businesspeople who have testified before Congress. He was dismayed by the experience. \u201cI was totally shocked. The members weren\u2019t really interested in what the answers were. They requested a statement in advance of the hearing, but instead of discussing the points outlined in that statement, they requested it just be read. I was disappointed and disgusted to have to sit through that as an open hearing.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fifth is the sense of disappointment bordering on sadness that many of these entrepreneurs feel as they contemplate decades of work learning languages, traveling back and forth \u2014 all coming to naught because of geopolitics and extreme attitudes. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dan Digree is a loudspeaker maker whose products are now more expensive than foreign competitors because of the Trump-era tariffs. He said: \u201cI\u2019m very disappointed that the Biden administration hasn\u2019t taken time to look at the China trade policy from the perspective of small business. With all the supply chain disruption happening, I\u2019m very angry that the government hasn\u2019t dealt with it or provided any help. The dangerous state of U.S.-China relations is an existential threat to many small businesses.\u201d<\/p>\n

Utah businessman Dan Stephenson, a Chinese speaker who wants Utah school kids to study the language, said: \u201cWe need a politician who will stand up and say: \u2018China has the biggest middle class in the world, and they are ready to buy stuff from our state.\u2019 If state legislators understood more about how China works and could distinguish legitimate concerns from fear-mongering rhetoric, it would be a real boost for both sides.\u201d<\/p>\n

Paul Swenson is Asia director for Wisconsin-based AMSOIL Industrial, a maker of lubricants for wind turbines. He said: \u201cThe relationship has long periods where things are good followed by periods when they\u2019re not; it is like being married. The current bad patch may be part of this pattern, but it could also signal a change in direction. China is my second home and I\u2019m deeply worried that one day it might not be as welcoming for foreign companies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI believe we Americans must keep a strong hand on what is right and wrong and what our values are. But does it make sense to end our business relationships after we\u2019ve invested so much? Does it make sense to throw money down the drain on tariffs? There must be a better way.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeanne DeMund, founder of Seattle-based Echo Products, has done business with China for several decades. She observed: \u201cCaving in to China\u2019s demands will not get us anywhere. But we need a calm, reasonable series of interactions to lower the temperature as much as possible. Draw on old relationships that do exist: the NGO relationships, the universities, the diplomatic relationships, the people-to-people relationships. We really need to work this out because it\u2019s in our best interests.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Last is a sense of guarded optimism that common sense will prevail, and the two countries will arrive at a place where important areas of bilateral cooperation can coexist with profound disagreements. Should this not be the case, additional homes will be needed for our Smart Rabbits.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jacob Cluver, founder of a custom-bred pig company in Illinois, said: \u201cChina is at the point where they need to develop outside the big cities and coasts. Rising incomes mean higher demand for better quality food and other goods. It would be foolish for the U.S. to quit China now.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

David Halm, a project manager for Georgia-based Project Success, said: \u201cI hope to be doing business in China 10 years from now if the governments can figure out how to coexist. I\u2019m optimistic about a change, but it will require strong leadership to find a solution that is best for the American worker and consumer. It has to be more than just a masquerade.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Added Robert Fisch, the Florida and Shanghai business consultant: \u201cThings in China tend to happen in waves. China will open, then crack down a bit, then open and then crack down. I\u2019m hopeful that the opening part of the cycle is not too far off in the future. While there is much saber rattling and posturing, I\u2019m still bringing on new clients, including a large online and brick and mortar company for different verticals that just got $400 million of funding.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thomas Biju Isaac, founder of Oregon-based Allied Technologies, said: \u201cI\u2019m an optimist. Things will get better. But we will pivot, doing more automated design and production in the U.S. We expect China and India to grow, even faster than the U.S. \u2013 and we\u2019ll be there, too.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jimmy Robinson is a founder of <\/i>New York-based PingPong Digital, which helps American universities recruit Chinese students. He said: \u201cThe instability in the relationship we\u2019re seeing now is likely to be short-lived, as China will likely start to return to more stabilizing policies prioritizing trade and business. They have a lot of optimism and hope. And so do I.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cA major rupture between these two great powers would be very destabilizing for the world. We need more and more, rather than less and less, communication. Active dialogue and engagement rather than just propaganda going back and forth.\u201d \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Robinson added: \u201cA country that is the second largest economy in the world, we will always have a business relationship with China.\u00a0 <\/span>I don\u2019t think you can have a complete decoupling. It doesn\u2019t make sense in the board rooms or the legislatures anywhere in the world.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Other business owners see the glass as half empty: Business relations will continue at some level, major improvement will not be possible without major changes in both counties. Mitch Thompson, the entrepreneur from California, said: \u201cThe magnitude of trade will be enough to hold things together for my business and for many other Americans. But culturally we\u2019ve never been further apart, and I\u2019ve been going there for many years. About the relationship improving, I\u2019m about as hopeful as I am about us having elections in the future without significant violence and chaos. Little hope for improvement with the current regime there, politics here. Very sad.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The discovery of a middle way for policymakers is necessary to achieve progress on the diplomatic front. A first step is to realize that radical uncoupling is not desirable or <\/b>even feasible, then identify and ring-fence those areas where cooperation can flourish. The stories collected for this article include ample examples of poorly conceived policy, especially tariffs, producing poor results.<\/p>\n

Recommendations to Help Smart Rabbits<\/b><\/p>\n

Weeks have passed since Presidents Biden and Xi last talked. Meanwhile, bad blood between the two countries continues to flow. There are steps that should be taken now to ensure that trade and people-to-people relations can continue while larger geopolitical issues play out. Nothing can be taken for granted as the constituencies for even modestly resetting the bilateral relationship remain in the minority.<\/p>\n

Direct support for small <\/b>business<\/b><\/p>\n