{"id":4686,"date":"2016-06-10T16:40:14","date_gmt":"2016-06-10T20:40:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/?p=4686"},"modified":"2023-04-07T11:13:52","modified_gmt":"2023-04-07T15:13:52","slug":"manifesto-chinas-reformers-david-shambaughs-chinas-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/2016\/china-currents\/15-2\/manifesto-chinas-reformers-david-shambaughs-chinas-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Manifesto of China\u2019s Reformers: David Shambaugh\u2019s China\u2019s Future?"},"content":{"rendered":"A review of China\u2019s Future?<\/u> David Shambaugh, London:\u00a0 Polity Press, 2016.
\nJohn W. Garver, Emeritus Professor
\nGeorgia Institute of Technology<\/p>\n
\n
![\"China's](\"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/chinas-future.jpg\")
A leading U.S. authority on China\u2019s politics, David Shambaugh of George Washington University, has authored what amounts to a manifesto of China\u2019s reformers who are dismayed by the recent return to hard authoritarianism under President Xi Jinping. These moderates believe that the current retreat from both deeper marketization of the economy and gradual political liberalization and return to hard-line repression not seen since the immediate aftermath of the Beijing massacre of June 4, 1989, will ultimately undermine rather than strengthen Communist Party rule over China.\u00a0 China\u2019s reformers cannot themselves write an open and direct critique of China\u2019s current direction under Xi, so Dr. Shambaugh has given them voice.\u00a0\u00a0 In effect, China\u2019s reformers have aired their views through a well-connected American Sinologist.\u00a0 Anyone desiring to understand the debate over China\u2019s future underway among China\u2019s top leadership can do no better than Shambaugh\u2019s concise book. (172 pages exclusive of notes).<\/p>\n
The upheaval that began with the autonomous student movement in Beijing in April 1989 continued through the collapse, one-after-the-other, of the East European Communist states and culminated in the disintegration of the USSR at the end of 1991. It was a profound shock for China\u2019s rulers, a near-death experience. A consensus quickly emerged within the CCP top leadership. The decision to impose the Party\u2019s will in June 1989 had been \u201ccorrect.\u201d Political liberalization allows opposition to emerge and leads to mounting challenges to Party leadership that may require highly risky confrontation with large and mobilized sections of the population.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 This was the fundamental \u201clesson\u201d of the 1989-1991 upheavals. Don\u2019t relax or lose control.\u00a0 Don\u2019t allow opposition to emerge and coalesce. Insist on upholding Party leadership. Don\u2019t share power. This is the perspective that inspires the current return to hard-line authoritarianism under Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n
By the mid-1990s, however, and according to Shambaugh, a different interpretation of the \u201clesson\u201d of the Soviet collapse emerged among CCP leaders. From this perspective, the fundamental cause of the Soviet collapse was not Gorbachev\u2019s much-belated efforts at reform starting in the mid-1980s, but the increasing bureaucratization and rigidity of Communist rule,\u00a0 plus a disregard for the desires of the people of the Soviet Union going back to the 1920s and 1930s. These things, this ossification of Communist rule, had made Gorbachev\u2019s desperate efforts necessary. The overthrow of Soviet Communist rule in 1991 was the result of six decades of repression and stagnation. This<\/em> was the great danger the CCP needed to avoid.\u00a0 The Party needed to forge a more \u201cconsultative\u201d type of rule with a more independent media, legislature, judiciary, economic activity, and civil society. The Party needed to pay greater heed to the desires of the people, and less attention to imposing its will. The Party needed to give up a degree of control \u2013 to the judiciary, to legislative bodies, the media, the intelligentsia, to enterprises. Changes along these lines, the reformers argued, ultimately would strengthen CCP rule. Refusal to become more inclusive was the path to ultimate regime demise.<\/p>\nFrom 1998 to 2008 the moderate reformers\u2019 views prevailed, and under the tutelage of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, China followed a \u201csoft authoritarianism\u201d course. Autonomous civil society organizations were tolerated. The media were given freer rein. People\u2019s Congresses and the \u201cdemocratic parties\u201d were given a broader role in \u201cconsultation.\u201d Private entrepreneurs were subsumed within the realm of \u201csocialism\u201d and given political voice. Foreign entities operating in China were given loose rein. Late in 2008, however, a conservative coalition coalesced around deep suspicious about the previous decade of soft authoritarianism and progressive weakening of Party control. This coalition included the Party propaganda apparatus, ministries of state and public security, the People\u2019s Liberation Army and the People\u2019s Armed Police, and inefficient state-owned enterprises. Party control was reinstituted across a range of policies, turning China away from soft to hard authoritarianism under Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n
The crux of Shambaugh\u2019s argument \u2013 and, I believe, that of the CCP moderates he is speaking for \u2013 is that China now faces a series of very serious problems which cannot be adequately addressed under hard-line authoritarian policies inspired by fear of CCP loss of control.\u00a0\u00a0 Rather, genuine solutions of these problems will require loosening of Party control over the allocation of capital and labor, higher education and intellectual inquiry generally, civil society, and even institutions of state and the political process to a significant degree. CCP moderates do not envision liberal democracy for China. Their inspiration is Singapore, where a single party perpetuates its rule but with autonomous technocratic organs of government (including legal and judicial organs), and wide if still limited scope for free debate and discussion.<\/p>\n
Shambaugh piles up a long list of pressing problems: An aging population and exhaustion of low-cost labor supply. Future costs of caring for the elderly. Property and stock market bubbles. Huge levels of debt carried by local governments and state owned enterprises.\u00a0\u00a0 A heavy burden of non-performing loans carried by banks. Massive over-building of industrial plants. Sub-optimal allocation of capital via state fiat to state-owned banks. Informal loans provided by non-official lenders that are largely unregulated, very important for the private sector and, thus highly risky. Degradation of arable land and usable water. Air pollution.\u00a0 Normalizing the status of China\u2019s vast population of migrants illegally inhabiting its cities.\u00a0 Meeting the rising expectations of an ever-larger middle class deeply plugged into global events\u00a0 (including uprisings against autocratic regimes around the world) via the internet. Maintaining positive relations with the United States and with China\u2019s neighbors. Adequate solutions to these problems will require a greater openness and a greater role for markets \u2013 with a corresponding rollback of state control. China\u2019s leaders generally understand this, Shambaugh argues, and have laid out policies to address these problems in authoritative statements of previous Central Committee Plenums. Yet those earlier policy prescriptions have been ignored.\u00a0 Fearing loss of control and dominated by the conservative coalition, CCP leaders have drawn back from real reform, relying instead on administrative control and repression. This, Shambaugh maintains, is the CCP path to Soviet-style stagnation, bureaucratic ossification, and popular alienation.<\/p>\n
Two key and interrelated threads of Shambaugh\u2019s argument have to do with:\u00a0 1) escaping the middle-income trap by shifting to high value-added production, and 2) the role of free intellectual inquiry in fostering scientific and technological innovation.<\/p>\n
A middle-income trap occurs when a newly industrializing country succeeds in becoming a producer of low-cost, labor-intensive export goods utilizing brands, product designs and production technology supplied by richer, more technologically advanced countries. On this basis, the country accomplishes a comfortable mid-range of income and development. It fails, however, to move past this stage of development and become a rich country or leading global economy. China\u2019s leaders recognize this danger. A State Council investigation found that only 13 of 101 industrializing economies had succeeded in escaping this \u201ctrap\u201d and becoming rich economies. \u201cSuccesses\u201d included Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Israel, Puerto Rico, and Mauritius. Economies that remained \u201ctrapped\u201d included Russia and other post-Soviet states. To escape the mid-level income trap, China needs to shift from massive investment in fixed assets (transportation infrastructure, housing, and expansion of heavy industrial facilities) and production of goods for export to production of goods and services for Chinese consumers. Massive state spending and easy bank loans under state guidance drives China\u2019s current \u201cmiddle income\u201d production structure. China\u2019s most efficient, dynamic, and innovative firms tend to be private companies outside the state sector and disesteemed by China\u2019s formal financial system. China\u2019s leaders understand, Shambaugh says, that deep market reforms are necessary if China is to escape the \u201cmiddle-income trap\u201d and become a rich and leading economy. But confronted by a slowdown in China\u2019s economic growth rate combined with sluggish foreign demand for China\u2019s exports, China\u2019s conservative control-minded leaders, fearing loss of control, have fallen back on an old tried and proven method of state fiat and administrative direction.<\/p>\n
In terms of free intellectual inquiry, Shambaugh\u2019s argument is that such freedom is required for path-breaking scientific and technological innovation that leads to new products and processes that become embedded in high value-added goods and services. Indigenous innovation is thus a key driver of escape from the middle-income trap. China\u2019s leaders clearly recognize this problem and have spent significant money on research and development and on elite universities. China now produces an abundance of journal articles and files a large number of patents. It woos accomplished ethnic Chinese engineers and scientists to \u201creturn\u201d from Europe and the U.S. to China to continue their investigations. Yet the payoff of these efforts in terms of basic innovation has been paltry. Shambaugh attributes this to a Confucian emphasis on rote memorization and a preference (once again) for state direction and control. Major breakthroughs in understanding \u2013 new ways of looking at things \u2013 are difficult to accomplish in an atmosphere of insistence on ideological correctness and orthodoxy. Creating a genuine innovation economy and thus escaping the middle-income trap will require that China embrace a culture of free intellectual inquiry and debate, Shambaugh argues.<\/p>\n
Shambaugh outlines several possible trajectories for the CCP. The good outcome, he suggests, would be a return to power of a reform coalition at the next Party Congress in 2017.\u00a0 China\u2019s post-Mao politics has been characterized, Shambaugh notes, by a shift every several years between a period of \u201cfang<\/em>\u201d or relaxation, followed by several years of \u201cshou<\/em>\u201d or\u00a0 tightening. The current post-2008 tightening may be merely the most recent iteration of this fang-shou<\/em> cycle, to be followed by renewed efforts at reform \u2013 perhaps after the global economy has escaped its current doldrums. Shambaugh also raises the possibility that strongman Xi Jinping might be pushed aside at the 2017 Party Congress, or perhaps even before that, in some sort of intra-Party coup.<\/p>\nOn the other hand, if the current conservative hard authoritarianism continues, the CCP state might be sliding into its \u201cBrezhnev period\u201d of several decades of bureaucratic ossification and alienation from those it rules. In such a situation, Shambaugh suggests, CCP leaders might attempt to re-legitimize their rule by giving the Chinese people what they crave: demonstrable establishment of China as a leading \u2013 perhaps \u201cthe\u201d leading \u2013 global power. Hard authoritarianism internally combined with aggrieved nationalism externally would be a gloomy development.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A review of China\u2019s Future? David Shambaugh, London:\u00a0 Polity Press, 2016. John W. Garver, Emeritus Professor Georgia Institute of Technology A leading U.S. authority on China\u2019s politics, David Shambaugh of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":4713,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[816],"tags":[239,242],"topic":[1051,1058],"journal-year":[1072],"coauthors":[113],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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Garver is Professor Emeritus in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He is a member of the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, and the Journal of American-East Asian Relations, and a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. He is the author of eleven books and over one-hundred articles dealing with China\u2019s foreign relations. His books include: China\u2019s Quest: A History of the Foreign Relations of the People\u2019s Republic of China (Oxford University Press, 2016); The Protracted Contest, China-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century and Face Off: China, the United States, and Taiwan\u2019s Democratization (2000 and 1997, both by the University of Washington Press); The Sino-American Alliance (East Gate); Nationalist China and U.S. Cold War Strategy in Asia (M.E. Sharpe, 1997); The Foreign Relations of the People\u2019s Republic of China (Prentice Hall, 1993; this is one of the most widely used textbooks on PRC foreign relations); Chinese-Soviet Relations, 1937-1945: The Diplomacy of Chinese Nationalism (Oxford University Press, 1988); and China\u2019s Decision for Rapprochement with the United States (Westview, 1982). Dr. Garver has received grants from the Fulbright Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the U.S. National Academy of Science, the U.S. Department of Education, the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation, and the U.S. Institute for Pakistan Studies. He has lived in various parts of China for over six years, has traveled widely throughout Asia, has conducted formal research in a number of Asian countries, is fluent in Chinese and has taught that language to his two children. He served in the U.S. Army from 1969-71. He also speaks German.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/author\/john-garver\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Manifesto of China\u2019s Reformers: David Shambaugh\u2019s China\u2019s Future? | China Research Center","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/2016\/china_currents\/15-2\/manifesto-chinas-reformers-david-shambaughs-chinas-future\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Manifesto of China\u2019s Reformers: David Shambaugh\u2019s China\u2019s Future? | China Research Center","og_description":"A review of China\u2019s Future? David Shambaugh, London:\u00a0 Polity Press, 2016. John W. Garver, Emeritus Professor Georgia Institute of Technology A leading U.S. authority on China\u2019s politics, David Shambaugh of...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/2016\/china_currents\/15-2\/manifesto-chinas-reformers-david-shambaughs-chinas-future\/","og_site_name":"China Research Center","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/chinaresearchcenter","article_published_time":"2016-06-10T20:40:14+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-04-07T15:13:52+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1242,"height":810,"url":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/china-future-landscape.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"John Garver","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@_chinacenter","twitter_site":"@_chinacenter","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"John Garver","Est. reading time":"9 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/2016\/china_currents\/15-2\/manifesto-chinas-reformers-david-shambaughs-chinas-future\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/2016\/china_currents\/15-2\/manifesto-chinas-reformers-david-shambaughs-chinas-future\/"},"author":{"name":"John Garver","@id":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/#\/schema\/person\/f12d00f181cfeebd0e4aece85d5a2a3c"},"headline":"Manifesto of China\u2019s Reformers: David Shambaugh\u2019s China\u2019s Future?","datePublished":"2016-06-10T20:40:14+00:00","dateModified":"2023-04-07T15:13:52+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/2016\/china_currents\/15-2\/manifesto-chinas-reformers-david-shambaughs-chinas-future\/"},"wordCount":1745,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/2016\/china_currents\/15-2\/manifesto-chinas-reformers-david-shambaughs-chinas-future\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/china-future-landscape.jpg","keywords":["china","reform"],"articleSection":["2016: Vol. 15, No. 2"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/2016\/china_currents\/15-2\/manifesto-chinas-reformers-david-shambaughs-chinas-future\/","url":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/2016\/china_currents\/15-2\/manifesto-chinas-reformers-david-shambaughs-chinas-future\/","name":"Manifesto of China\u2019s Reformers: David Shambaugh\u2019s China\u2019s Future? 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Garver is Professor Emeritus in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He is a member of the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, and the Journal of American-East Asian Relations, and a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. He is the author of eleven books and over one-hundred articles dealing with China\u2019s foreign relations. His books include: China\u2019s Quest: A History of the Foreign Relations of the People\u2019s Republic of China (Oxford University Press, 2016); The Protracted Contest, China-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century and Face Off: China, the United States, and Taiwan\u2019s Democratization (2000 and 1997, both by the University of Washington Press); The Sino-American Alliance (East Gate); Nationalist China and U.S. Cold War Strategy in Asia (M.E. Sharpe, 1997); The Foreign Relations of the People\u2019s Republic of China (Prentice Hall, 1993; this is one of the most widely used textbooks on PRC foreign relations); Chinese-Soviet Relations, 1937-1945: The Diplomacy of Chinese Nationalism (Oxford University Press, 1988); and China\u2019s Decision for Rapprochement with the United States (Westview, 1982). Dr. Garver has received grants from the Fulbright Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the U.S. National Academy of Science, the U.S. Department of Education, the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation, and the U.S. Institute for Pakistan Studies. He has lived in various parts of China for over six years, has traveled widely throughout Asia, has conducted formal research in a number of Asian countries, is fluent in Chinese and has taught that language to his two children. He served in the U.S. Army from 1969-71. He also speaks German.","url":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/author\/john-garver\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4686"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4686"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4686\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6969,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4686\/revisions\/6969"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4686"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=4686"},{"taxonomy":"journal-year","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/journal-year?post=4686"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinacenter.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=4686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}