Dr. Susan Shirk Discusses U.S.-China Relations, Atlanta, November 16th, 2009

As part of the China Research Center’s 2nd Annual Event, Dr. Susan Shirk addressed the evolution and current state of U.S.-China relations. Dr. Shirk presided over a roundtable discussion at Georgia Tech in the afternoon and made a presentation at the Carter Center in the evening. In total over 80 people participated.

In her presentation, she suggested that President Obama’s administration has begun the relationship on the basis of continuity with the Bush administration. Both administrations were faced with the rise of a new power in the global context, a situation which historically has been very difficult to manage well. U.S. leaders deserve credit for avoiding a new cold war despite the “threat” perceptions that often emerge from both countries.

The U.S. perception of China tends to mimic that of Japan’s economic competitive rise combined with the security threat of the Soviet Union—i.e., China creates both an economic and a security challenge, and therefore seems even more difficult. Shirk’s view is that the greatest danger to U.S. interests is, in fact, the weakness of the Chinese political leadership, or their perception of their own weakness. This creates a tendency to play to a domestic audience that wants to see China strong, at times tying the hands of the central leadership.

The Chinese perception, or rather misperception, is that the U.S wants to keep China contained in terms of power and wealth. Shirk argued that in contrast to the Chinese perception, the U.S. has in fact done everything it could to help China’s rise in terms of encouraging economic cooperation and China’s own opening, including working to have China accepted into the World Trade Organization. Nonetheless, the U.S. also plays to a domestic audience with respect to trade and currency issues in particular. These misperceptions mean that domestic politics matter a great deal to how the leaders of both countries react to conflicts and negotiations with the other.
One of the current optimistic aspects of the U.S.-China relationship is that the Taiwan relationship is much smoother than it has been. Taiwan and the mainland have made progress on direct links, and they are negotiating on numerous levels. This makes Taiwan much less important for the moment in the U.S.-China relationship. Despite this positive aspect, world events change quickly. President Obama will need to deal with China on a full plate of challenging issues over his time in office including the financial crisis, climate change, North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Tibet.